Friday, October 23, 2009

One more won over

An economist I know kind of agreed with me in regards to UK and the US, that those countries are not only broke, they are about to fall down into a super depression. However, he also argued that China was great and that most of Europe could withstand such events even if it meant a couple of years of adjustment.

Adjustment? Really? And what sort of adjustments do you think there will be?

Over 70% of the US economy is based on shopping. When people don’t have jobs, all the phony market manipulations fall down and the depressional Tsunami have really hit the shoreline, there is no shopping anymore. People will be broke; they will go back to homegrown or roam through garbage. And much of that shopping is of foreign products which mean that it will have serious impact all over, not to mention Sweden that is very trade-dependent and have US as one of the main markets. UK is also a big market for Swedish companies, and as a very important part of the European community, it too will have serious effects.

But worse still are the complete destruction of the USD and the fall of equity markets. Equities are not only, to a large degree, valued in dollars, they are also much entwined all over the world. If one stock market crashes, others will follow.

So even IF some European countries will not be directly affected as hard as the mentioned countries, the impact will be severe enough to force those in charge to take appropriate measures.

And what do you think they will do? Will they cut or raise taxes? Will they de-regulate or over-regulate? Will they cut spending or will there be more stimuli? The repercussions are self-evident. There will be more and bigger government, more and bigger stimuli, more bail-outs, higher unemployment and more propping up of markets. In other words, creating more problems and leaving the people that have no clue what they are doing in charge. So crash after crash after crash will hit.

And this with totalitarian parties on the raise all over. It’s back to the 30s again, this time with nuclear weapons in the mix.

Once the crashes cometh, there is no recovery, not for anyone.

Just think about those tens of millions of people already today on the brink of starvation. There will be so many dying that we are going to see cemeteries with millions of crosses.

And China? Please. When everything crashes, so will their exports and their fictively low yuan will be a huge problem. And they too have been doing the same idiotic things. Not to mention the huge wealth differences and the diversity in that country. I’ll be very surprised if China doesn’t have a civil war on their hands in the near future.

This guy I talked to is pretty mainstream, but even he has figured out how bad it looks in some countries, I hope I persuaded him about the general picture. He’s a pretty smart one, just too indoctrinated and too much into the general opinion to see it all.

When will the rest of you apes get it?

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