Friday, March 28, 2014

Civil war in Ukraine

Lubrication not necessary...

Ukraine is still newsworthy for several reasons – none of them good. 

Since the people of Crimea voted to leave the poverty stricken and nazi-infected Ukrainian state things have gone from bad to worse and now the country is only two steps away from an all-out civil war.
The basic problem is that the political elite having constantly refused to implement good capitalist reforms. Instead they´ve done what politicians always do; they´ve robbed the people and given more power to themselves and their friends.
But there are also other reasons for the debacle and western leaders should be ashamed of their actions that have led to this point. Although the in-house leadership created a bad situation western support of the neo-Nazis, the NATO and EU pressure to join those organisations and several other outside interference's are the torches that lit the fire. The direct financial support (about $10bn) that poured in via western countries to practically arm extremists were not only morally questionable, no matter how bad the previous regime was, it was also in violation of previous signed agreements.

In the west journalists (useless as always) and politicians alike have blamed Russia for “invading” Ukraine – of course ignoring that the Russian speaking, Russian supporting, mostly Russian employed population in the historically Russian area of Crimea voted to be free of the Kiev mess. Western leaders also blame Russians to be in violation of the Budapest agreement. The thing is however that the mentioned agreement not only guaranteed Ukrainian boarders - it also clearly states that none of the signers would use economic coercion to subordinate Ukraine and that no one should use political pressure to incorporate Ukraine into their own sphere of interest. Consequently even IF Russia can be said to have violated the agreement, west did it first and for longer and as a result directly impacted the events that followed. The €11bn bailout (loan) offered to bribe Ukraine to join the European Union, the $10bn in direct aid to protesters and rioters, and of course the by NATO paid for military “exercises” together with Ukraine to show them how great it is to be a part of NATO, are all violations of that agreement. The continuous support of the coup government, even more “exercises” planned and the EU´s pressure to sign over to the western fold are also in grouse violation of that agreement.

As per usual anything blamed on the Russians the EU/US/NATO has already done, only a lot worse.

Without this support the coup would not have been successful. Without the money and political pressure there would not be such animosity whereas half the country leans towards EU/NATO and the other half don´t. Without the western support of neo-Nazis they would not be such a huge problem today. Without NATO pushing for influence on Ukraine and planned military drills, which both broke the mentioned agreement and upset Russians; it would be far less likely that Putin would have pressed for Crimean annexation.

In CIA speak this can be referred to as “blow-back”; it created unintended consequences by meddling. Or; they put their noses where they did not belong.

Not only should western leaders have known where this would end up, they should also have been fully aware of any potential Russian response. If they were, they fully intentionally incited what has to be regarded as a pending civil war and they knew fully well that Russia would incorporate Crimea regardless of the cost. I am not giving our western politicians enough credit to understand such things so I regard the entire spectacle as yet another ignorant foolish meddling of those deemed better.

I also do not understand what EU(SSR) and NATO would do with Ukraine anyway. It is not like NATO need more members, the current squad of misfits and soul-sucking entities are more than enough to take on any foe. The ONLY reason why NATO would try to incorporate Ukraine into their sphere is to encircle and piss off Russia even more. For the European Union it is even stranger. Even today, with the current membership, things are not going well. As things stand now it seems more likely that a country (or five) would leave EU rather than new member states would join. The Euro zone is a complete fiasco with riots, sky-rocketing unemployment and growing poverty as a result. What would the EU(SSR) do with 40 million Ukrainians out of which 10 million are unemployed? Give them cleaning jobs? Hire them as Mediterranean guards fighting off African refuges?

The same thing happen with Georgia. EU and NATO tried to influence Georgia and the Georgians thought they had their backs covered when they started the war against Abkhazia and South Ossetian. The minor states in turn thought they had western support since the west previously supported and encouraged Kosovo independence. But as per usual western hypocritical two-timing meddling fucked things up. Russia saw no other choice then to step in since the UN did nothing.

Ukraine however is a far bigger mess then the Georgian-Russian crisis. In Ukraine we have different nationalities, different languages, and completely diverging political agendas. The oligarchs have stolen a lot, the politicians have stolen even more, and the Nazis have yet to lay down arms.

Of course the western powers, highly responsible for the mess, do their very best to make it even worse.

Since the money lenders want their so called “investments” (loans) back the IMF has practically forced Ukraine to a 50% gas price hike, which will seriously hurt a people already living on the brink. But, of course, the IMF and the new coup government do not stop there; they´ve now also issued that pensions will be cut in half, practically condemning millions of elderly to dirt poor starvation. The “austerity plan” also includes deep cuts in social services, education and a devaluation of the currency.

It is like Greece all over again, only worse since the Ukraine is already in a complete mess.

I am not against the so called “austerity measures” as long as the root causes are addressed and the people responsible for the mess pay a hefty price both in terms of monetary retributions and jail-time. I also believe that a majority of the people can understand and excuse cuts as long as the high-and-mighty and those responsible get what is coming to them. However, as we´ve seen, that is and will not be the case.

The cash flow from the Ukraine will not go to anyone other than the big banks. The looted people will lose their homes, their land and their dignity – presumably also taken by banks and by certain western businesses seeing opportunities in buying up the country.

If Ukraine does not end up in a bloody long civil war I will be very surprised. Of course the group siding with the west will get monetary support and perhaps arms to fight off those opposing the looting. Again I see no other choice for Russia then to step in and, at the very least, protect the border areas filled with Russian speaking, Russian supporting, and mostly Russian employed population living in historically Russian areas.

Since many western leaders have already issued that “Russia is not done” and stating that Putin is the new Hitler, they will of course build on this to vilify and cast shadow over the only country seemingly caring what happens in the area. And if NATO steps in the situation may escalate quickly.

I am not pro-Russian or in love with Putin, but it is a seriously messed up world wherein the Russians seemingly are standing up for what is right and correct while the West continues to fuck up.

As for the Ukrainian people I feel very sorry for them. They made the same mistake as everyone else has done; they trusted western siren songs and were stupid enough to borrow money from the four-winged beasts of the large banking conglomerates.
Sadly hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, will die as a result – and so the EU(SSR)´s member states will get a lot of Ukrainians just as they wanted, only they will be refugees.
I wonder; will that lead to barriers put up in border areas with armed guards as in the Mediterranean?
Would be the ultimate betrayal…