Friday, April 10, 2009

The Oracle predicts

The world is in an economic recession and governments everywhere is rushing to save their jobs by stimulating an already too drunk and overly satisfied hooker. Some signs shows improvement, some the opposite, so what will happen next?

As I have mentioned before in passing, together with other predictions which have been spot on (so far not missed a single thing), there are two potential scenarios. Either all those stimulus and bail-outs “work” in the sense that people start buying again, the market recuperate some and there is a breather for months or maybe even some years. Or the market sees straight thru this scam and/or something happens that triggers the depression earlier, like General Electric starting to bleed money and going bankrupt or another war starts somewhere in the middle east.

When reading the signs the second scenario seems more and more likely. Just as in the 20’s and 30’s politicians are eager to show good numbers and journalists are writing how things starting to look up. And just as back then trade is dropping like crazy, businesses go down and the stock market is very volatile going up and down. And just as back then governments are borrowing and printing money like there is no tomorrow and they have been doing that for a while now. The only ingredient really missing is an increase in protectionism. It has been growing some, but not really enough to pull the final trigger.

I, the oracle
, predict that this up-and-down spiral will continue over the summer and around the time when school starts up again there will be a sudden shift and the “up” will not be as frequent or as high as before and then during late summer and autumn protectionism will continue to increase and around September/October the first prominent journalists and others will proclaim we are now in a depression. Politicians will ignore this and throw more stimuli into the fire and around Christmas businesses will starting to really crumble. In Januari/februri 2010 the global depression will hit us will full force when both new numbers and several economies shows the worst figures ever. And then we have AT LEAST a couple of years of mass unemployment and civil unrest. What happens after that I will come back to tell you later on but otherwise you can read my earlier ramblings. It is really easy to understand if you just use that brain.

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