Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Another day with more lies

It is almost like our journalists need to debunk every negative economic report they are “forced” to print/show, and this they do with 2 or 3 positive ones, all the while ignoring the truly negative.

The whole thing is really very easy. On one side you have lots of economists, financiers, bankers, politicians, journalists and other frauds. None of which predicted this crisis, none of which have had a single right so far. In fact, for these people every prediction, every expected number and the very depth and severity of this crisis has gone wrong. They were totally of the mark before this crisis, they have been way off during it, and so why on Beelzebub’s green earth would you listen to them now?

On the other side you have people that predicted this crisis many years before it happened. Most of which continues to get it right all throughout. In many cases it’s almost uncanny how some predicted almost to the exact number the value of Gold, the price of oil and so on. I do take pride in being one of those people. Although I’m perhaps a tad “out there” so you might instead wanna go listen to Gerald Celente, Marc Farber, Rand Paul or (my favourite) the Market ticker instead.

But isn’t the crisis turning around like all our enemies say?
No. What we are seeing is a boom and bust situation were lots of fiat money have been thrown to certain financial institutes that put those money to “good use”, were massive debt accumulations in practically every country on earth have lead to slight increases or halting of the fall of GDP, and it’s a situation were stock manipulations and investors increasing risk-taking (read this in LA Times) have altogether contributed to a temporary halt. In some cases, like France, Germany and Japan, trade surpluses also helps with the scam. You need to understand that people whom actually know what they are talking about is saying that many markets is so overvalued its almost impossible for them not to burst.

Our total situation is not getting better, in fact its lots worse today then it was a couple of years ago. Although it is true that some countries (Sweden for one), are better off then others, at least temporarily, but the coming crashes will not save those from going down with the rest. And if you really want good indications on how the economy really is going, take a look at the sex-industry that is supposedly ‘recession proof’ – the sex-trade have never slumped like this ever before, not during the Great Depression, never. Or have a look at the total figures on protectionism that is still on much higher levels then before the crisis, and take a look at the Baltic Dry Cargo index that hasn’t been this low since the dot.com bubble burst. Or look the number of actual pirates sailing the seas. These examples are not scientific proof, but they are hell of a lot more on the spot than any cornflake economist.

Think of our situation like this (this is fact, not an imaginative example). You are Swedish, and you have, yourself, borrowed and spent to a level that is equivalent of 150% of what you earn per year i.e. you are so deeply in debt that you hardly can afford to pay the interest, and that’s today at the fictive very low levels the interest rates are at. Unemployment is very high and very few are actually in a safe position, job-wise. Looking at the stock-exchange and all those big companies around you, you notice that they go up and down. Some companies show very bad results, some do pretty well (just follow the news ticking in, almost funny to watch. Every other company shows “surprising winnings” and others show very bad numbers). The stock market goes up to new heights one day and goes down the next. In such a situation, which we are in now, don’t you feel a bit uneasy? A bit worried? And do you really think that buying a house in this situation with the current and tampered low interest rates is a good idea?

But then throw a glance towards America and the UK, two of Sweden’s main trading partners, and there you will find even worse numbers and much more of the same uneasy tension you are feeling about Sweden. After that; take a look at China that supposedly has a growing economy, counted in GDP. China is the main drive force for everything our enemies are saying right now. They are the main lender to the US and without China Bernanke and the rest of the buffoons wouldn’t have money at all. China is the main reason for the increase in Japanese and German export numbers and China is also one of the main reasons why the stock markets around the world are doing pretty well at the moment. Do you have this scenario in your head now? Okay, now what you need to know is that China is about to tighten their protectionism further, and that one of the main sources of income, the government selling land to people, is not doing so well and falling. Got the picture?

Now, before we get to the conclusion, what is GDP?

This is how GDP is normally counted:

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or,
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M).

If you understand this simple equation, which 99% of our politicians, economists and journalists don’t, you soon realize that this can very easily be tampered with. Government spending for one – all the government need to do is to borrow and/or print a shit-load of money, throw them around and presto! Higher GDP! And what are our governments doing? That’s right…

On point after point after point, this equation, that is supposed to show economic growth, becomes idiotic at best. Higher GDP does not mean higher values! Higher GDP does not mean that we are producing more! Higher GDP does not mean more money in your pocket! It can show all those things, but most of the time it doesn’t. Now, take a look around again, watch, learn, listen, read and, from our situation above, where do we stand today? What does higher GDP really means for those countries that are “out of the recession”?

Maybe you come to the same conclusion as I do after this little session, but wait! It gets better! I haven’t even mentioned how the dollar is doing and what that will do to oil prices, the coming commercial real-estate crash in the US and many other things. ...Well... just put it altogether and I’ll see you out on that deserted island far away from this entire apocalyptical scenario. I may even give you a sip of my freshly brewed vodka and we can nibble on some popcorn together watching the sun go down while listening to the radio hearing how journalists, politicians and economists is trying to explain why we need another stimulus while the world is crumbling under them and people take to the streets with ropes they start throwing around lamp-posts. Yepp, come on over. We can have fun together.

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