Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The endgame

Make the choice
Most of you who reads this will not really understand, but we are at the cross-roads. A decision needs to be made and you need to make it. I didn’t start this blog because I really thought the world is going to end, that’s more of a persona, an image, but this current crisis can lead to something that, at least, gets close to what you can call apocalypse. It can because we have got ourselves so far down this road that it’s hardly any way back. And if you decide that this road paved with borrowing, newly printed money and big and even bigger government is a good thing, this is going to end very badly. Most of this worlds governments have decided to throw more printed money on this road and they are borrowing even more to get us out if this crisis. Common sense tells almost all of us that getting yourself deeper into debt by borrowing even more in combination with making more money by pressing some keyboard, is a bad idea. None of us regulars would do that to get out of debt. Still you listen and most of you even cry for more. Why?

Socialists are happy
Most of the politicians and people of this world believing in big government and collectivization are, right now, having a great time. More regulations are imposed on the market every day and governments are throwing money around like there is no tomorrow. But the thing is; there is a tomorrow. The debt needs to be paid. And if the productivity doesn’t increase significantly, the only way of paying back the debt is through higher taxes and more printing of fictive money which leads to higher inflation and yet another, even worse, crisis. The only other way is to cut costs, in other words to fire lots of nurses, social workers, police officers and so on. Since most of you don’t like that kind of policy, it won’t happen.

Socialism at fault
A lot of people are saying that this is a capitalist crisis. Nothing can be further from the truth. The real-estate market collapsing in America did so because of government’s interventions and governmental institutions making people borrowing money they couldn’t afford buying things they really couldn’t afford. In most of the western world the governments have been borrowing money to keep all of you spending, something that never would be possible if we had capitalism. And this is one of the reasons why we have a crisis. Another reason is that the government and big business have been sleeping together for a long while. Almost every restriction, every tax and every subsidizing have been in favor of big business and been devastating for smaller companies. This even most socialist agree with me on, of course they call it capitalism for some reason, it’s not. A third reason is different wars that the US and others are fighting. This cost a lot of money, both the war itself, but also rebuilding and in lesser trading. Again socialist will tell you that this is capitalism fault. But who started it? Who gains on it? Throughout history there is only one entity that ever started wars; government. How much do you think someone can gain on bombed buildings? How much profit is there in dead people? The only time investors and businesses in general might gain value on a war, is afterwards, helping rebuild. A war is the ultimate destruction machine, it destroys capital, not make it. The merchant (as collective) have never and will never win anything on wars, but a government does. In a capitalist world war wouldn’t be an issue, there are no profits and governments would be so petite that they wouldn’t have the means to start a war.

In Japan the government is into their 12th (depending how you count) stimulus package of staggering amounts and things are not getting better, they are getting worse. Suicide rates are going up, unemployment is rising and trade is slowing down. Still they choice to throw even more stimulus at the people. Hungary got 20 billion EURO last year in extra bail-out and they are getting poorer by the minute. And even if the stimulus packages are raining down all over right now, they are not the first ones. Even before this crisis really unfolded, several countries had similar solutions. Back then it was in order to keep things rolling, keep people spending, keep GDP up and growing. Now it is to do the same thing. Why didn’t it work back then? And why does anyone think this is going to work now? The only thing it might do is to send some chock-wave thru the economy getting people to think “that’s a lot of money”, and then they go out spending and borrowing again. That’s the only thing that all this money can do in a “positive” way. And I think you all know and realize this on some level so don’t let this trick you. It is a scam to get you to throw away your last savings, do not do it!

The endgame
Time is up. Not even governments and countries can keep spending money that doesn’t really exist. There is a point when this becomes impossible and that situation is kind of what got us into this mess, but they are still trying it. This time however at a scale, at a magnitude and with such staggering amounts it’s unbelievable. The total amount of all the bail-outs and stimulus in the world right now surpasses anything in history, by far. You can throw together the cost for every war in the last century and you still wouldn’t have this amount, not even close to it. And here is the plot; it is almost only borrowed and newly printed money. There is not productivity behind it, it’s not even taxes, they are borrowing and printing this money. Please understand this. It is complete madness. If you, the people, do not understand this then we are going to have what can only be described as the endgame. The last time we had this situation we got Hitler and other fun figures that started WW II. In the aftermath we got Mao, a strong Soviet Union and the cold war. This time the fall is bigger, granted, we are richer today. But that also makes it even worse. The economy is global and we are richer, which means when this crisis really hits us, it will truly be a global meltdown and the fall is so huge from our position that the consequences of the Great Depression will seem like a fan blowing in a hurricane. There are already several really horrifying parties and potential leaders waiting in the wings here and there and with this crisis their number will increase. And do you know what we have today that they didn’t have in Hitler’s time? Weapons of mass destruction.

I know I sound like those doomsday prophets that I loathe myself and I know it seems like a terrible thought, but do not kid yourselves. This can turn very ugly very soon. If you do not choice the righteous path with less of this madness and instead go for the socialist road, it is all downhill. Make your choice and hopefully you can stick it to me in the future and tell me how wrong I was.

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