Tuesday, October 27, 2009

And prices are going up? How about that...

U.S. home prices appear have to scraped a bottom, with index showing three (four) consecutive months of gains this summer. Housing market analysts cited the federal government's $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers as an important factor in the housing market's recovery of late. The credit applies to home sales that close Nov. 30 and is part of the $787-billion federal stimulus package enacted in February (This is likely to be expanded more months though).

This is, of course, reported as good news by media and pundits.

What I see is a dark mind numbing chasm of despair and just at the edge of it stands a tall building wherein all this fictitious cancerous pile of garbage is collected with all the people inside. It is also having a very scary tilt towards the abyss, just waiting for that small breeze to push it over.

Let’s see if I can get another one or two to understand something,

Firstly, the official US unemployment is 9.8% and rising. The real number is close to 19%. In fact there are as few people working today, as percentage of the potential working populace in America, as it was during what currently is known as the ‘Great Depression’. Got that?

And when we look at the housing market, as of today, the numbers are showing that there was 938 000 foreclosures during the 3Q 2009. Foreclosure notices were up 5 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, and up 23 percent from the same quarter a year ago, according to a report released by foreclosure tracking Web site RealtyTrac. This was the worst 3 months period since the - again currently named - ‘Great Depression’.

And prices are going up? How about that?

One reason for prices going up is the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers. Because this means something in this equation, it’s not a great amount of money, but it still makes a small difference that together with ridiculously low interest rates makes many people consider taking a loan, and many does. I couldn’t find any number showing how many of those people actually putting a cap on their loans, but you can be sure there aren’t many of them. In essence having loans they shouldn’t have with a volatile labor market with fabricated interest rates that must go up sooner rather than later.

Is this sinking in? Are you starting to get the picture?

Mind you, this is only looking at the housing and real-estate market in general. In this there is no reflection to a failing USD, there is no consideration to other debt accumulation or the retraction of the stimulus that’s comes down the road. No inflation, no derivatives, no commercial real-estate figures and no regard to a bloated stock market. I’ve even left out the very funny fact that lending companies are buying housing from each other or, even funnier, from themselves.

Only looking at these presented numbers, ask yourself; is it good or bad news that prices are going up? Do we really take such figures as signs of a recovery and add it to the pile of ‘green shoots’ we hear about all the time?

If I was an American, I would sell everything I have, move to cottage in the forest and start planting my own seeds with lots of guns and supplies stacked up. That’s how you should react to these numbers.

The clueless media is helping US citizens dig their own graves; I hope the American people remember that once the time comes for a reckoning of those responsible. But to my American readers I can comfort you with that the rest of us aren’t very far behind.

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