Walking home from work today, I started thinking through all what’s going on in the world, partly to see if I had missed something vital and partly just to make sure all the numbers add up to what I have been saying. And I came to release something, I have been wrong. Not about the predictions, but about the taming.
Firstly thinking about how Teddy “the murderer” Kennedy’s demise may impact on the equation since many in media is arguing it may impact on health-care reforms or Washington decision-making in general, and then it hit me; nothing, it will have no impact whatsoever. Political planning cannot rely on one man closing in on 80y with a diagnosed fatal illness. There must be a contingency plan or such events should already been taken into consideration from the start, it would be very bad thinking otherwise.
Secondly I thought about all the wrongs our journalists do, never reporting about the truth and only telling us about those so so good news ticking in. This, and other factors, contributing to the very good stock-market results we have seen recently. But equities have not really reached the required heights just yet, so what can make those go even higher? Really good news for one, certain political stabilizing factors can also contribute, but equity markets are very much about psychology so the main contributing factor will most likely be repetitive news about how things looks good. There have been so many reports lately (I have debunked several of those in this blog, most of them are actually bad news. Another one about consumer index in the euro-area came today, read it, it is not positive news as journalists claim) but people in general don’t really care about reading or understanding such news, and consequently rely on media and pundits to convey the content and results. In other words, if most people in the media, politicians and many “reliable” people who should know say the same thing over and over again it will mean, over time, that the message goes through, adding the sand-castle more and more.
Thirdly I went through all the events that have happened as far back as 20 years leading up to this moment. Iraq war *2, Afghanistan, the dot.com bubble, certain commodities and their prices, presidents, Labour in the UK and so on. All in all so many things that have lead to a certain point, cause and effect. All through this mess, so many people that should know better, economists, politicians and journalists and other power elitists that have insisting on doing the complete opposite of what is right and correct.
Fourth I considered how long the scam can keep going, and as stated before it is an absolute maximum of 2 years before the next much bigger crash strikes the world, but will it really take that long? The answer is no. If it was just up to some countries that haven’t been jumping overboard and are pretty well off at the moment, those “good news” may actually have a tad of truth to them, but there are too many faults within stock markets, there are too many big important countries for the world economy that is failing miserably and so far we haven’t seen a single attempt to battle either the looming hyperinflation or the structural liabilities that lead up to this crisis in the first place. In other words things will turn nasty long before those 2 years are up. And since there is already indications of a couple of new American in-house crashes and most of those supposedly “green shoots” in reality are very bad signs, the real mayhem isn’t so far away. But before that happens, the economies need to rebuild some and gain further confidence so the implosion will have that massive effect it is meant to. So the real question becomes, how long can the scam go on in the short run? And the answer is; not very long. Equities are way overvalued already, so the markets cannot gain much higher ground, a couple of points certainly, but not enough. Consequently we will see another month or so with “good news” ticking in all the time and the bad news will be ignored even more. I also see some political things up on the agenda that will also help boost the scam. In other words it is very likely that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict becomes resolved or similar events. Up to the next quarterly reports I think it is doable to keep this rolling, but then, no, probably not very further. So my earlier prediction about the next big crash happening in February/march 2010 is probably wrong, it will happen earlier. This is especially true if you consider the next thing I contemplated.
Because finally I started thinking why so many people that normally have about the same view on the world and things that goes on in this world, are so convinced that something big is about to happen. A couple has mentioned the Swine Flu turning very nasty; some talk about another big war breaking out, and others mention a huge terrorist attack. And here it hit me, that’s the point. The point is to build up a confidence, tear it down, build it up again, and then really tear it down. If this happens to coincide with a mutated Swine Flu pandemic breaking out around November or a nuclear bomb exploding in Washington city (Obama will not be there of course, we need a leader…) is really irrelevant, the effect will be massive. And just imagine if both things happens around the same time. Stock markets would plummet down to depression levels over night and the world will hold its breath over what’s coming next.
This post of rambling is linked to certain events, which makes it less accurate, but my gut-feeling says it’s a correct prediction. However, the scam can go on for another year, but it is hard to see how, something extraordinary need to pull us up, maybe some new inventions? Devine intervention? And there are many elections coming up, I hardly see how things wouldn’t progress straight down before those have taken place. In other words, it is time to move. I have now packed my bags and am leaving, hopefully for a distant island. I don’t know yet and consequently the next couple of post may actually be my last ones.
Please people, if you haven’t listen before, do it now. Buy dried-up food packaged, gasoline, guns, candles and other useful commodities before it is too late.
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